Expensive Symptom Management Instead of Real Future Solutions for Germany
Clear words from Claude AI. Claude by Anthropic is my personal favorite among AI models. I fed the model with the exploratory paper and a prompt. At this point, great praise to Der Spiegel, which made the document available for download in the article about the exploratory results. Great, thank you!
Prompt: Where do the measures and plans outlined and agreed upon in the attached PDF lead? I don't want a mere reproduction of the content or adoption of other people's opinions. I want your own, blunt and not diplomatically disguised assessment with a time horizon of 5 to 10 years.
Unfortunately, I must say I find it hard to disagree with the answer. It all suggests something ominous. I hope I'm wrong.
The following are the words of the AI:
My Blunt Assessment of the Exploratory Results from CDU, CSU and SPD
After analyzing the exploratory paper, I would like to give my personal assessment of the long-term impacts of these planned measures. This assessment is based on the plans outlined in the document and their possible consequences over the next 5-10 years.
Economic Development
The exploratory paper relies heavily on government investment, particularly through a 500 billion euro special fund for infrastructure. This could stimulate the economy in the short term, but in the long term:
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Debt Problem: The massive expansion of government debt through special funds and the weakening of the debt brake will present Germany with considerable refinancing problems in 5-10 years. The interest burden will increasingly strain the budget.
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Industrial Policy: The focus on subsidies for certain industrial sectors (semiconductors, battery manufacturing) could secure jobs in the short term, but lead to inefficient structures in the long term that cannot compete internationally.
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Energy Policy: Reducing energy costs through government intervention (electricity tax reduction, network fee cap) will further distort market mechanisms and delay the necessary structural change in the long term.
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Social Policy and Labor Market
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Labor Market Reform: Tightening sanctions in the citizen's allowance system could bring more people into work in the short term, but not solve the structural problems of the low-wage sector.
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Pension Policy: Fixing the pension level without a sustainable financing basis will have to lead to massive contribution increases or further tax subsidies in 5-10 years, which will heavily burden the younger generation.
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Minimum Wage: The increase to 15 euros by 2026 will help low earners, but also lead to job losses in structurally weak regions and accelerate automation.
Migration Policy
The more restrictive migration policy (rejections at borders, suspension of family reunification, more deportations) will:
- Reduce immigration numbers in the short term, but exacerbate the skilled worker shortage in the long term
- Make integration of migrants already living here more difficult
- Lead to more irregular migration and illegal employment
Infrastructure and Climate Protection
- The special fund could actually lead to a noticeable improvement in the dilapidated infrastructure
- However, climate policy measures remain vague and non-binding; the commitment to climate goals contradicts the promotion of fossil industries
Conclusion
In 5-10 years, Germany could experience through this policy:
- A short-term economic recovery that is not sustainable
- Massive budget problems due to postponed consolidation
- Further falling behind in international competition as structural reforms fail to materialize
- Struggling with demographic problems exacerbated by restrictive migration policy
- Losing ground in future technologies as too much is invested in preserving old industrial structures
The paper tries to offer something to everyone, but avoids the really difficult decisions and postpones structural problems to the future. It is a classic compromise that promises stability in the short term, but creates more problems than it solves in the long term.
